📈 Company Growth and Financials
Performance Overview:
- Revenue:
- Q3 FY25: ₹13,434 crore (flat YoY, slight decline of 0.2%)
- 9M FY25: ₹41,951 crore (up 12.9% YoY)
- EBITDA:
- Q3 FY25: ₹4,786 crore (down 5.4% YoY) due to lower merchant power contribution.
- 9M FY25: ₹16,478 crore (up 21.9% YoY)
- Net Profit (PAT):
- Q3 FY25: ₹2,940 crore (up 7.4% YoY)
- 9M FY25: ₹10,150 crore (down 43.9% YoY) due to lower one-time regulatory income compared to FY24
Comparison with Past 3-5 Years:
- Revenue CAGR: ~15% over the past 3 years, driven by capacity expansion.
- EBITDA Growth: Strong in the last two years, backed by higher power demand.
- Profitability: Lower compared to FY24 due to absence of one-time regulatory gains.
Adani Power is showing strong core operational growth, but profitability has declined due to lower one-time revenue recognition.
🛠️ Order Book and Business Expansion
Key Developments:
- Total Operating Capacity: 17,550 MW, up from 15,250 MW in FY24.
- Expansion Pipeline: 13,120 MW additional capacity planned.
- Signed PPA with Maharashtra Govt. for 1,496 MW long-term supply.
- Commissioned 1,600 MW Jharkhand-Bangladesh power plant, the first transnational project.
Adani Power has a strong order book and clear expansion roadmap, securing long-term revenue visibility.
🚀 Future Projections
Growth Expectations:
- Revenue to grow at 10-15% CAGR, driven by new PPAs and capacity expansion.
- Profitability expected to improve as long-term PPAs stabilize earnings.
- Upcoming Projects:
- 6,400 MW under development.
- Expansion in renewable & ultra-supercritical coal projects.
Adani Power is positioned for stable long-term growth, with regulated earnings from long-term PPAs and a well-diversified portfolio.
💰 Debt and Financial Health
Key Metrics:
- Total Debt: ₹36,096 crore (up from ₹34,457 crore in FY24).
- Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 0.48x, significantly improved from 1.32x in FY23.
- Net Debt/EBITDA: 1.3x, indicating strong debt servicing ability.
Adani Power has reduced its leverage substantially, improving its financial stability.
🌍 Market Size and Opportunities
Total Addressable Market (TAM):
- India’s power demand is expected to reach 930 GW by 2032, from 442 GW in 2024.
- Coal-based power still essential, requiring 80 GW of additional capacity by 2031.
- Renewable integration (500+ GW by 2030) to further drive power demand.
Adani Power has a huge growth opportunity in India’s expanding energy needs, particularly with government-backed projects and long-term PPAs.
⚖️ Regulatory and Market Influences
Key Insights:
- No pending major regulatory actions.
- Completed all regulatory settlements related to past fuel cost issues.
- Improved ESG Ratings (S&P CSA score of 67).
The regulatory environment remains favorable, with high government backing for power projects.
📊 Technical Analysis
Current Market Trends:
- Support Levels: ₹450, ₹500.
- Resistance Levels: ₹590, ₹620.
- RSI: Around 58-60, indicating a neutral-to-bullish trend.
- Moving Averages:
- 50-day EMA: ₹540
- 200-day EMA: ₹500
- Breakout above ₹590 could trigger a rally toward ₹620+.
Trend & Forecast:
- Short-Term (1-3 months): Neutral-to-bullish, watch for ₹590 breakout.
- Medium-Term (6 months): Bullish, backed by earnings growth.
- Long-Term (1 year+): Strong uptrend, supported by demand growth and capacity expansion.
The stock is trading in an uptrend, with bullish potential if ₹590 resistance is broken.
💡 Valuation and Investment Outlook
Key Insights:
- P/E Ratio: Fairly valued compared to sector peers.
- Short-term Outlook: Bullish above ₹590, indicating near-term upside potential.
- Long-term Outlook: Positive, supported by PPA-backed earnings and capacity growth.
Adani Power is a strong long-term investment, backed by rising demand, long-term contracts, and financial strength.
