Adani Energy Solutions Limited (AESL), a core part of the Adani Group’s infrastructure and utilities portfolio, continues to strengthen its position as one of India’s leading integrated power transmission, distribution, and smart metering companies. In Q1FY26, AESL showcased its ability to deliver sustained growth, reporting a 28% jump in total income, a record ₹59,304 crore under-construction order book, and rapid execution in smart metering with over 5.54 million installations completed.

📊 Company Growth & Financials

1) YoY and QoQ performance (Q1FY26 vs Q1FY25)

Consolidated snapshot (Q1FY26):

• Total Income: ₹7,026 Cr (+28% YoY)

• Operational Revenue: ₹4,600 Cr (-1% YoY)

• Operating EBITDA: ₹1,615 Cr (-1% YoY)

• Total EBITDA: ₹2,017 Cr (+14% YoY)

• PAT: ₹539 Cr (+71% YoY)

• Cash Profit: ₹1,043 Cr (+15% YoY)

Drivers called out by management (Q1FY26):

• Topline boosted by Service Concession Arrangement (SCA), EPC, and treasury income.

• Operating EBITDA flat due to lower distribution EBITDA, while transmission stayed stable.

• PAT jump aided by EBITDA growth, ₹33 Cr lower depreciation, and ₹19 Cr lower net taxes YoY.

🔎 Accounting note (SCA): Construction-phase capex on BOOT assets is recognized as Revenue under SCA, with a mirror construction expense, and corresponding financial assets on the balance sheet (amortized cost). This is why Total Income rises even if “Operational Revenue” is flat; the segment bridge shows SCA revenue ₹1,924 Cr in Q1FY26 vs ₹572 Cr in Q1FY25.

Segment detail (Q1FY26 vs Q1FY25)

• Transmission – Operational Revenue: ₹1,172 Cr (₹1,174 Cr) | Operational EBITDA: ₹1,070 Cr (₹1,073 Cr) | Total EBITDA: ₹1,288 Cr (₹1,148 Cr)

• Distribution – Operational Revenue: ₹3,360 Cr (₹3,372 Cr) | Operational EBITDA: ₹493 Cr (₹534 Cr) | Total EBITDA: ₹630 Cr (₹592 Cr#)

• Others – Operational Revenue: ₹68 Cr (₹77 Cr) | Operational EBITDA: ₹52 Cr (₹21 Cr) | Total EBITDA: ₹99 Cr (₹22 Cr)

🧭 QoQ: The PDF provides YoY comps; QoQ granularity isn’t given. Any precise QoQ % would require prior-quarter numbers not contained in this deck.

Key Takeaway: Profitability (PAT, EBITDA, Cash Profit) advanced solidly even as operational revenue was flat — reflecting SCA mechanics and mix support from transmission & smart metering.

🟢 Order Book & Business Expansion

2) Under-construction order book & growth

• Under-construction transmission order book: ₹59,304 Cr (vs ₹42,193 Cr in Q1FY25) — ~40% YoY growth.

• New win: WRNES Talegaon line, which helped lift the book to current levels.

• Commissioned in Q1: Three projects — Khavda Phase II Part-A, KPS-1 (Khavda Pooling Station-1), Sangod Transmission.

3) Execution readiness & regional spread

• Transmission footprint: 26,696 ckm (from 21,187 ckm), +5,509 ckm YoY; Transformation Capacity 93,236 MVA (from 57,186 MVA) — strong expansion with system availability ~99.83%.

• Distribution (AEML, Mumbai): Units sold 2,939 MUs (-1% YoY due to early monsoon), loss down to 4.24% (from 5.18%), ASAI ~99.997%, complaints reduced, collection efficiency up.

4) Smart metering scale-up

• Installed to date: 5.54 mn meters; portfolio: 22.8 mn meters under DBFOOT contracts.

• Run-rate: ~25,000–27,000/day; Q1 installs ~2.4 mn; FY target 7 mn additions (cumulative 10 mn).

• Market headroom: ~95 mn untapped smart meters (company view).

• Capex throttle: Q1FY26 capex ₹2,224 Cr (1.7x YoY); smart metering capex ~8x YoY — clear execution ramp.

Capability to fulfil order book?
Yes — evidence in capex ramp, commissioning track record, high availability, and meter install acceleration (14x monthly install rate in one year).

Key Takeaway: Multi-year execution visibility is underpinned by a record order book and demonstrated rollout velocity in both transmission and smart metering.

🟢 Future Projections & Pipeline

5) What management signals about near-term commissioning

The company expects to fully commission in FY26:

• NKTL, WRSR, Mumbai HVDC, Khavda Phase-III-A (Halvad).

6) Smart metering pipeline & contract structure

• 22.8 mn meters, ₹272 Bn contract value; 120-month terms; DBFOOT model; multi-state coverage (BEST–Mumbai; MSEDCL; AP discoms; NBPDCL–Bihar; UPCL–Uttarakhand).

📌 Implication: As commissioning milestones land and metering base compounds, Total Income should maintain momentum via SCA recognition, while Operating EBITDA growth leans on steady transmission returns and rising metering O&M phases over time.

Key Takeaway: Near-term revenue visibility is supported by slated FY26 transmission go-lives and a large, long-tenor metering book.

🟢 Debt & Financial Health

7) Leverage & cash generation

• Net Debt: ₹33,500 Cr (Q1FY26) vs ₹30,167 Cr (Q1FY25) — increase aligns with higher capex on BOOT projects.

• Cash Profit: ₹1,043 Cr, up 15% YoY — supports internal funding capacity.

• Liquidity / ratings context: Multiple AA+/AAA domestic and BBB-/Baa3 international ratings across AESL/AEML platforms — consistent with long-tenor, regulated-return cashflows.

8) SCA accounting & cash flow timing

• Under BOOT, construction capex is booked as SCA revenue & expense and recognized as financial assets; cash inflows are recovered over concession periods.

Key Takeaway: Leverage is purpose-built to fund long-life, regulated assets; improving cash profit and strong credit standing indicate manageable debt service.

🟢 Market Size & Opportunities

9) Transmission & metering demand signals (from the deck)

• Smart meters: ~95 mn untapped opportunity — sizable runway for DBFOOT deployments.

• Transmission build-out: Under-construction portfolio totals 7,063 ckm / 47,475 MVA / ₹593 bn (est. project cost), spanning national & state assets including HVDC and Khavda phases.

⚠️ The presentation does not quantify India-wide TAM for transmission; conclusions here stay confined to the company’s visible book and pipeline.

Key Takeaway: The 95 mn metering gap and a ₹593 bn under-construction transmission slate collectively point to multi-year growth capacity.

🟢 Regulatory & Market Influences

10) Regulatory posture

• The deck outlines accounting treatment (Ind AS-115) and indicates regulated returns (ROA) or fixed-tariff TBCB contracts across assets — both support earnings visibility.

• AEMIL share pledge: AEML holds 100% of AEMIL; 51% pledged in favor of AESL due to CERC restrictions — structural note, not a distress signal.

The presentation does not state any ASM/SEBI actions on AESL; this analysis refrains from external claims.

11) Promoter / ownership

• The slides mention a promoter holding event for AGEL (not AESL); no change is stated for AESL in this deck.

Key Takeaway: Contract frameworks (ROA/TBCB) and credit profile point to a stable regulatory environment for cash flows; no deck-flagged compliance issues.

🟢 Technical Analysis (Monthly) — what can be said responsibly

The deck doesn’t include price/volume data; precise supports, resistances, or indicator-based forecasts require current market prices and charts. To keep this 100% accurate, I won’t fabricate levels.

What I can state from fundamentals/flow only:

• Trend backdrop: Order book expansion + scheduled FY26 commissioning biases medium-term positive.

• Potential catalysts: CODs (NKTL, WRSR, Mumbai HVDC, Khavda III-A) and sustained metering run-rates.

• Risk to trend: Any execution delay or regulatory slippage on large HVDC/Khavda assets could defer recognition.

👉 If you want, I can fetch the latest chart and compute monthly S/R, trendlines, ATR-based bands, and 50/200-MMA dynamics — just say the word.

Key Takeaway: Technically uncalled here to ensure accuracy; fundamentally, the setup is constructive into FY26 milestones.

🟢 Valuation & Investment Outlook

From the deck alone (no market price in the file):

• Earnings momentum: YoY growth in Total Income (+28%), EBITDA (+14%), PAT (+71%).

• Visibility: Under-construction ₹59,304 Cr book + 22.8 mn metering contracts with 120-month terms.

• Balance sheet: Net debt up with capex, mitigated by regulated returns & cash profit growth.

Without current share price/consensus, I cannot label the stock over/fair/undervalued purely from this file. That said, visibility plus commissioning catalysts support a positive medium-term fundamental stance.

Key Takeaway: Valuation call requires the market price. Fundamentals & pipeline argue for constructive multi-quarter outlook.

🧱 Capex Profile & Execution Proof

• Total capex Q1FY26: ₹2,224 Cr vs ₹1,313 Cr (1.7x) — with smart metering capex up ~8x YoY.

• Metering cadence: Monthly installs up 14x (Jun’24 to Jun’25), average per-month installs up ~17.9x vs Q1FY25.

Key Takeaway: Accelerated spend + rising throughput = credible delivery capacity into a multi-year pipeline.

🧩 Segment Operating Quality (AEML)

• ASAI: 99.997%; Transmission Availability: 99.64%; Distribution Loss down to 4.24%.

• Consumer metrics: Complaints down (216,549 → 135,337), collection efficiency up (96.89% → 98.29%), consumer base up (3.20m → 3.24m).

Key Takeaway: Distribution operations appear tight and improving, supporting steady earnings quality.

🛡️ ESG & Ratings (select highlights)

• Smart metering & renewables integration underpin sustainability narrative.

• Ratings: Domestic AA+/AAA across key entities; international BBB-/Baa3 on bonds — supportive for long-tenor funding.

Key Takeaway: ESG/rating profile aligns with utility-style, regulated earnings structure.

🧾 One-page Numbers Table (Q1FY26 vs Q1FY25)

✅ Section-wise Key Takeaways (quick bullets)

• Growth & Financials: Profitability up despite flat operational revenue — SCA/EPC mix & operating leverage help.

• Order Book/Expansion: Record ₹59k Cr UC book; transmission/ metering scale-up proven in metrics and commissioning track.

• Projections: FY26 CODs for NKTL/WRSR/Mumbai HVDC/Khavda III-A likely to add to the earnings base.

• Debt/Health: Leverage supports capex; cash profit up; ratings solid — consistent with regulated utility profile.

• Market Opportunity: ~95 mn metering headroom; ₹593 bn UC transmission slate indicates multi-year runway.

• Regulatory: ROA/TBCB models, Ind AS-115 clarity; no adverse actions shown in deck; structural pledge note on AEMIL explained.

• Technical/Valuation: Need live prices to quantify; fundamentals bias constructive medium-term.

❓ 6 FAQs

1) Why did Total Income surge while Operational Revenue stayed flat?
Because SCA revenue (for BOOT assets) flows through the P&L during construction, lifting Total Income; it’s neutralized by construction expense, and recognized as financial assets on the balance sheet.

2) Is distribution performance improving?
Yes — loss down to 4.24%, ASAI ~99.997%, complaints down, collection efficiency up.

3) How large is AESL’s execution pipeline?
₹59,304 Cr under-construction transmission; 22.8 mn metering contracts (₹272 Bn, 120 months).

4) What are the near-term project catalysts?
Expected FY26 CODs: NKTL, WRSR, Mumbai HVDC, Khavda III-A.

5) Is leverage a concern?
Net debt rose with capex (₹33,500 Cr), but cash profit grew and the platform carries AA+/AAA domestically and BBB-/Baa3 globally — consistent with regulated assets.

6) How big is the smart metering opportunity?
Management pegs ~95 mn untapped meters beyond the portfolio — a substantial runway for DBFOOT rollouts.

Conclusion

Adani Energy Solutions Limited (AESL) delivered a strong Q1FY26, with 28% YoY total income growth, a record ₹59,304 crore under-construction order book, and rapid expansion in smart metering — already at 5.54 million installs with a 95 million-meter untapped market ahead. Profitability surged, with PAT up 71% YoY, backed by regulated-return transmission projects, improved distribution efficiency, and accelerated execution.