Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) — India’s largest upstream energy company — is at a pivotal juncture. With global crude prices stabilizing and domestic gas demand rising, ONGC’s strategic roadmap for FY26-27 blends operational discipline, technology partnerships, and a bold shift toward renewables.

Company Growth & Financials

Latest quarter (Consolidated): Q1 FY26 (Apr–Jun 2025)

• Revenue (gross/“total income”): ₹1,63,108 crore
  — YoY -2.18%, QoQ -6.16%.

• Net Profit (PAT): ₹11,554 crore
  — YoY +40.33%, QoQ +30.48%.

• EBITDA (consolidated, Q1 FY26): ~₹28,462 crore (broker-compiled from the results filing). Note: ONGC’s exchange press note doesn’t publish quarterly EBITDA; this is the consolidated operating EBITDA derived in the brokerage statement. Moneycontrol

Quick compare: last 3 financial years (Consolidated)

Notes: FY25 & FY24 are taken from ONGC’s Integrated Annual Report FY25 (consolidated). FY23 PAT (after MI) shown here for context comes from consolidated historical series. Stock Discovery+2Stock Discovery+2

✅ Takeaway: Revenue is broadly stable YoY, Q1 PAT rebounded sharply on better upstream realizations/mix. Annual FY25 EBITDA moderated (vs FY24) as refining/petchem subsidiaries cycled tougher margins.

🟢 Order Book & Business Expansion

E&P companies don’t maintain an “order book” like EPC firms. For ONGC, the best proxies are approved projects and capex.

• Capex (FY25): ₹62,057 crore (ONGC standalone); ₹83,395 crore at the Group level (ONGC ₹62,057 cr, HPCL ₹14,508 cr, OVL/others balance). Highest-ever utilization (ex-acquisitions). Stock Discovery+1

• Key sanctioned/ongoing developments (illustrative)
  – Pipeline Replacement Project-VII: ₹3,214.77 crore
  – Mumbai High North Redevelopment—Phase IV: ₹3,967.36 crore
  – CBM Bokaro development: ₹1,076.44 crore (ONGC 80% PI) Stock Discovery

• Strategic tie-up: bp appointed Technical Services Provider for Mumbai High to lift oil & gas output (contract signed Feb 10, 2025). bp global

• New/adjacent verticals & expansion
  – ONGC Green Ltd (OGL): Renewables platform; FY25/FY26 push with ~₹3,500 crore planned in green capacity; 10 GW RE by 2030 targeted. ONGC is also acquiring PTC Energy (288 MW wind) and sourcing further RE assets. The Economic Times+1

Can they fulfil the project pipeline?
Yes—backed by record capex, long-life brownfields, deepwater developments (KG-DWN-98/2), and technical partnership at Mumbai High; FY25 operating cash flow (group) was strong, supporting execution. Stock Discovery

✅ Takeaway: While “order book” isn’t applicable, ONGC’s sanctioned projects + capex give high execution visibility, especially across Mumbai High, KG deepwater, and renewables via OGL.

🟢 Future Projections

• Production outlook: Management has trimmed FY26–FY27 production guidance, with KG-98/2 peak shifted toward FY27, while new-well gas share (priced at a premium to APM) rises—supportive for realizations. Business Standard

• Mumbai High uplift: The bp TSP contract is intended to stabilize decline and boost oil (~+44%) and gas (~+89%) from the field over the program horizon (start-up FY26, visibility by FY27–FY28). Reuters

• Energy transition & scale-up: Roadmap toward 10 GW RE by 2030 and 2.5–3 GW additional RE acquisitions; also evaluating ~3 mtpa LNG long-term imports to diversify supply. Reuters

Revenue/EPS trajectory (directional): With KG ramp delayed into FY27 and bp-aided Mumbai High uplift phasing in, FY26 may remain range-bound; FY27 has clearer step-up potential as volumes improve and RE contributions scale.

✅ Takeaway: Near-term growth is back-half weighted (FY27). Execution on KG-98/2 and Mumbai High improvement plan is the swing factor for EPS.

🟢 Debt & Financial Health

• FY25 (Consolidated):
  – Total Debt: ₹1,53,556 crore; Debt/Total Capitalization: 29.1%; Debt/EBITDA: 1.77×.
  – Equity (incl. MI): ₹3,74,235 crore ⇒ D/E ≈ 0.41×.
  – Operating Cash Flow (CFO): ₹9,08,682 crore. Stock Discovery+1

Debt strategy: Blend of rupee loans, OIDB lines, and bank facilities; selective prepayments executed; funding aligned to multi-year capex. Stock Discovery

Profit/EPS impact: Leverage remains moderate; interest burden manageable versus cash generation. EBITDA normalization (vs FY24 peak) was the bigger driver of FY25 EPS compression.

✅ Takeaway: Balance sheet is sound with sub-1× net leverage on through-cycle EBITDA and ample internal accruals to fund projects.

🟢 Market Size & Opportunities

• India oil imports: FY25 crude imports ~4.88 mb/d; Russia the top supplier; OPEC share at multi-year lows—price/discount dynamics remain a key macro driver. Reuters

• Gas demand runway: India’s gas consumption projected ~60% higher by 2030 (to ~297 mmscmd), a secular positive for domestic gas producers. India Brand Equity Foundation

• ONGC’s role: Largest upstream player; contributes the majority of India’s domestic crude and gas output; domestic volumes are strategic for energy security. Fortune India

Sector-specific risks: Natural decline rates in mature fields, policy-linked windfall levies, and gas pricing formulas; execution risk in deepwater; commodity price volatility. Down To Earth

✅ Takeaway: TAM is structurally large domestically; policy support for gas and energy security underpins multi-year opportunity, offset by execution/price risks.

🟢 Regulatory & Market Influences

• Surveillance (ASM/SEBI): ONGC is not in the ASM list as per exchange reports; the company reports no penalties/fines over the last three years. Pledge on promoter stake: nil. NSE India+2Stock Discovery+2

• Promoter & institutional: Promoter (GoI) 58.89% (steady), FII ~7.1%, MF ~8.7% (Jun-25). No promoter pledges. Trendlyne.com+1

• Macro sentiment: FII flows, INR depreciation, and crude swings have historically driven PSU E&P sentiment and multiples (directional). NSE India

✅ Takeaway: Shareholding is stable (GoI 58.89%); no ASM overhang; macros (crude, INR, flows) can move the stock short-term.

🟢 Technical Analysis (Monthly view)

Price context (as of Oct 03, 2025 close): ~₹243; 52-week high ₹299.70, low ₹205.00. Dhan+1

• Trend: After a strong 2024 up-leg, ONGC has been in a sideways-to-soft consolidation in 2025 between ₹205–₹300.

• Key levels (monthly):
  – Supports: ₹241 (61.8% Fibonacci from ₹205–₹300), ₹230 (swing shelf), ₹205 (52-W low).
  – Resistances: ₹255 (recent supply), ₹265–₹270 (Fibo/zone), ₹300 (52-W high).

• Momentum read: Neutral/slightly improving into Q4, but a monthly close >₹270 would confirm a higher-high continuation; <₹230 re-opens a test of ₹205.

Forecast scenarios

• Short term (weeks): Range ₹230–₹265; break & hold above ₹265–₹270 can target ₹285–₹295.

• Medium term (3–6 months): Constructive only above ₹270 monthly close; otherwise base-building persists.

• Long term (12+ months): Positive bias if Mumbai High uplift/KG progress translate to volumes—watch ₹300 breakout on strong volume.

✅ Takeaway: Technically range-bound; bulls want ₹270+ monthly close, bears want ₹230 to give way.

🟢 Valuation & Investment Outlook

• Valuation snapshots (Oct 2025): P/E ~8.5×, P/B ~0.9× (trailing). These sit near long-run PSU upstream averages and below market multiples. Dhan

• Balance-sheet context: D/E ~0.41×, Debt/EBITDA 1.77× (FY25 consolidated). Stock Discovery

• Frame: On pure trailing metrics, ONGC looks fair to modestly undervalued vs its cash-flowing, asset-heavy profile; catalysts are execution-linked (KG ramp, bp-enabled Mumbai High uplift, RE build-out). Risk remains macro/realization and policy.

✅ Takeaway: Valuation is reasonable; upside needs volume & margin catalysts to unlock a re-rating.

FAQs

1. Is ONGC’s promoter increasing or pledging shares?
   Promoter (GoI) stake is steady at 58.89%; no pledges. Trendlyne.com+1

2. What’s the near-term trigger for EPS growth?
   Mumbai High productivity program with bp and KG-98/2 ramp toward FY27. bp global+1

3. How healthy is ONGC’s leverage?
   D/E ~0.41×, Debt/EBITDA 1.77×; strong CFO supports capex. Stock Discovery+1

4. Does ONGC have an “order book”?
   No—E&P uses a project/capex pipeline, not order-books; FY25 capex ₹62,057 cr standalone; key projects sanctioned in FY25. Stock Discovery+1

5. Is gas a growth opportunity?
   Yes—India’s gas demand could rise ~60% by 2030, supportive for upstream gas volumes/pricing. India Brand Equity Foundation

6. Is ONGC under any exchange surveillance (ASM)?
   No—not on current ASM lists; no recent penalties. NSE India+1