Adani Green Energy: Powering India’s Renewable Future with Record Growth!

📈 Company Growth and Financials

📌 Key Takeaways:-

✅ Strong Revenue & EBITDA Growth: Driven by an increase in operational renewable capacity and higher energy sales.

✅ Profitability Up: Despite rising input costs, PAT improved due to efficiency in operations.
✅ Operational Capacity Expansion: Increased by 6.4% YoY, reflecting AGEL’s commitment to scaling renewables

 Adani Green has maintained a consistent growth trajectory with improving financial stability and operational expansion.

🛠️ Order Book and Business Expansion

📌 Current Capacity & Growth Plans:

• Total Operational Capacity: 11.6 GW (Solar: 67%, Wind: 15%, Hybrid: 18%).
• Expected by FY30: 50 GW (4x growth)
• Largest Renewable Energy Park: Khavda, Gujarat (30 GW by 2029), world’s largest single-location renewable project.

📌 Strategic Expansions:

• Secured 5+ GW of Hydro Pumped Storage (PSP) capacity across Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and UP.
• Signed 1.5 GW PPA with C&I customers to expand merchant sales.

AGEL’s robust order book and aggressive expansion into hybrid renewable projects strengthen its position as a leader in India’s green energy transition.

🚀 Future Projections

📌 Revenue & Profit Forecast:

• Revenue Growth: CAGR of ~15% over the next 5 years.
• EBITDA Margins: Expected to improve from 85% to ~90% due to lower operational costs.
• Targeting ₹50,000 Cr revenue by FY30 with increased merchant & C&I sales.

📌 Upcoming Projects & Partnerships:

• Joint Venture with TotalEnergies (1,150 MW portfolio).
• Pumped Storage Expansion to support energy storage needs.
• Expansion into Green Hydrogen under Adani New Industries Ltd.

Adani Green is well-positioned for multi-year revenue growth, supported by secured PPAs, new projects, and global partnerships.

💰 Debt and Financial Health

📌 Key Debt Metrics:

• Total Debt: ₹47,300 Cr (up from ₹42,500 Cr in FY24).
• Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 1.05x, indicating a moderate leverage position.
• Average Loan Tenure: 20 years, ensuring manageable repayments.
• Recent Capital Raise: $1.1 billion through preferential issuance to promoters.

AGEL maintains a disciplined capital management approach, balancing debt with long-term growth investments.

🌍 Market Size and Opportunities

📌 Industry Outlook:

• India’s power demand to grow at 6-7% CAGR, reaching 388 GW by FY32.
• Renewable energy (RE) mix to rise from 35% to 59% by FY32.
• Government-backed ₹82,000 Cr investments in clean energy infrastructure.

📌 AGEL’s Growth Potential:

• Adani’s dominance in renewables aligns with India’s 500 GW non-fossil target by 2030.
• Cheapest solar tariff in India (~₹2.6/kWh), driving demand for AGEL’s projects.
• Entry into energy storage & green hydrogen creates multi-billion dollar opportunities.

With India’s ambitious renewable energy targets, AGEL stands to capture a significant share of the growing clean energy market.

⚖️ Regulatory and Market Influences

📌 Regulatory & Market Sentiment:

• No major regulatory risks or SEBI actions reported.
• 100% Must-Run Portfolio under the Electricity Act 2003.
• Improved ESG scores (S&P: 77, Sustainalytics: 14.3).

📌 Promoter Holding Trends:

• Stable at 60.9%, with recent capital infusion of ₹9,000 Cr via warrant issue.

 AGEL is financially and regulatory stable, with strong ESG credentials boosting investor confidence.

📊 Technical Analysis

📌 Key Market Levels:

• Support: ₹1,580, ₹1,640.
• Resistance: ₹1,750, ₹1,850.
• RSI: 60 (Moderately Bullish).

📌 Moving Averages:

📌 Forecast:

• Short-Term (1-3 months): Bullish, breakout above ₹1,750 can lead to ₹1,850.
• Medium-Term (6 months): Positive, supported by revenue growth.
• Long-Term (1 year+): Strong Uptrend, backed by energy demand & expansion.

 AGEL’s stock is bullish, with a potential upside beyond ₹1,850 in the medium term.

💡 Valuation and Investment Outlook

📌 Investment Summary:

• Short-term: Positive momentum, potential breakout above ₹1,750.
• Long-term: Strong growth backed by PPA revenue & renewables expansion.

 AGEL remains a long-term growth stock with consistent profitability, expansion plans, and market leadership in renewables.