Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: QUBT) is carving a niche in the rapidly evolving quantum computing and photonics industry. With applications spanning aerospace, finance, energy, cybersecurity, and telecom, QCi is uniquely positioned through its Dirac-3 quantum optimization platform and Thin Film Lithium Niobate (TFLN) chip foundry. This guide presents an in-depth look into QCi’s financials, business strategy, market potential, and investment case in 2025.
📊 1. Financial Performance Overview
🔢 Quarterly Breakdown (2024 vs. 2023)
| Quarter |
Revenue 2024 ($’000) |
Revenue 2023 ($’000) |
YoY Growth |
Net Loss 2024 ($M) |
Net Loss 2023 ($M) |
| Q1 |
123 |
64 |
+92.2% |
-4.7 |
-6.5 |
| Q2 |
87 |
55 |
+58.2% |
-5.2 |
-7.1 |
| Q3 |
101 |
50 |
+102% |
-7.4 |
-9.3 |
| Q4 |
62 |
75 |
-17.3% |
-51.2 |
-6.8 |
| Total |
373 |
358 |
+4.2% |
-68.54 |
-29.7 |
📉 Key Trends
- Full-year revenue rose 4.2% to $373K
- Q3 revenue doubled YoY due to NASA task orders
- Q4 drop due to timing of commercial contracts and a $43.6M non-cash charge
- Operating expenses increased 27.3% YoY to $31.2M
- Estimated 2024 EBITDA: ~$25M negative
📆 Historical Trajectory (2020–2024)
| Year |
Revenue ($’000) |
Net Loss ($M) |
Operating Expenses ($M) |
Milestone |
| 2020 |
~0 |
-24.7 |
6.2 |
R&D phase |
| 2021 |
~0 |
-27.9 |
7.8 |
Pre-merger setup |
| 2022 |
135 |
-38.6 |
13.4 |
QPhoton merger |
| 2023 |
358 |
-29.7 |
24.5 |
NASA contract growth |
| 2024 |
373 |
-68.54 |
31.2 |
TFLN foundry development |
📦 2. Order Book and Business Expansion
🧾 Order Pipeline Highlights
| Client |
Sector |
Use Case |
Est. Value ($’000) |
| NASA |
Aerospace |
Quantum LiDAR, phase unwrapping |
500–1,000 |
| TU Delft |
Academia |
Photonic LiDAR research |
200–300 |
| Rabobank |
Finance |
Quantum fraud detection |
100–250 |
| Energy Cos |
Energy |
Windmill & fuel optimization |
50–150 |
| TBD |
Cybersecurity |
Quantum authentication & uQRNG |
50–100 |
- 2025 Order Book Estimate: $2–$3M
- TFLN chip orders expected to grow post foundry completion
🌍 Global Reach
- 80% of 2024 revenue came from U.S. (NASA, LANL)
- Europe: Early traction via TU Delft
- Asia: Talks with Japanese telecom companies for TFLN chip integration
🏭 TFLN Foundry
- Location: Tempe, Arizona
- Status: Launch expected March 2025
- Capabilities: Enabling global-scale TFLN chip production for 5G, LiDAR, defense
- Strategic Significance: Foundation for $10M–$20M in chip orders by 2026
📈 3. Future Projections and Strategic Pipeline
Revenue Forecasts (2024–2027)
| Year |
Revenue ($M) |
Net Loss ($M) |
EPS Estimate ($) |
| 2025 |
1.5–2 |
-20 to -25 |
-0.15 to -0.20 |
| 2026 |
5–7 |
-10 to -15 |
-0.08 to -0.12 |
| 2027 |
20–30 |
Break-even |
0.00 to 0.05 |
🧩 Strategic Projects
- NASA: Multi-year $5M contract potential
- Los Alamos: National security optimization via Dirac-3
- Rabobank: Scaling quantum banking use cases to more EU clients
- TFLN Chips: Deliveries to academia, telecom, and defense
- QCaaS: Quantum-Cloud service rollout by Q4 2025
💰 4. Capital Structure & Financial Health
| Metric |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
| Total Debt ($M) |
8.4 |
3.2 |
1.18 |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio |
0.15 |
0.05 |
0.01 |
| Cash Reserves ($M) |
5.2 |
2.1 |
78.95 |
| Operating Cash Flow |
-12.6 |
-14.8 |
-16.21 |
| Free Cash Flow |
N/A |
N/A |
-22.25 |
- $100M equity raise completed in early 2025
- Debt repayments concluded Q1 2024
- Operating runway through 2027 based on current burn
🌎 5. Total Addressable Market (TAM) and Opportunity
TAM Growth
| Segment |
2024 TAM |
2029 TAM |
| Global Quantum |
$1.3B |
$5.3B |
| U.S. Market |
$800M |
$2B |
| Photonic Quantum |
$200M |
$1B |
- QCi aims to capture $100M–$200M by 2027
Vertical-Specific Opportunity
- Aerospace: $1B/year NASA spend on quantum
- Finance: $10B/year loss prevention potential via quantum algorithms
- Cybersecurity: $50B global security infrastructure at risk
- Telecom: $100B 5G/6G infrastructure growth aligns with TFLN
⚖️ 6. Legal, Regulatory & Ownership Landscape
- March 2025: Class-action lawsuit over alleged misstatements
- Export controls (BIS) could impact photonic sales overseas
Ownership
- Insider: ~10%, stable since 2023
- Institutional: 15% (Vanguard, PEAK6 among holders)
- Retail: Dominant, driving price volatility
📉 7. Technical Analysis & Chart Trends
| Timeframe |
Bull Case |
Base Case |
Bear Case |
| Short-Term |
$10–$12 |
$6.50–$10 |
$5–$6.50 |
| Medium-Term |
$15–$20 |
$12–$15 |
$5–$8 |
| Long-Term |
$30–$50 |
$20–$35 |
$3–$5 |
- Current Price: ~$8.75
- RSI: 55 – Neutral
- MACD: Bullish crossover Q1 2025
- Volume surge to 10M shares/month in Q4 2024
📊 8. Valuation Insights
| Metric |
QCi |
IonQ |
D-Wave |
| Market Cap ($B) |
1.13 |
2.5 |
0.8 |
| P/S Ratio |
3000 |
500 |
200 |
| P/B Ratio |
1.5 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
| 2024 Revenue |
0.373M |
37.6M |
8.7M |
DCF Fair Value Estimate: $0.80–$1.20/share
- Speculative premium driven by quantum hype and retail interest
❓ 9. FAQs
- Is QCi’s revenue growing? Yes, but uneven—Q3 2024 rose 102% YoY while Q4 dipped.
- Is QCi stock a buy in 2025? It’s a high-risk, high-reward speculative investment.
- What sets QCi apart from IonQ or D-Wave? A photonic-focused platform and TFLN chip strategy.
- What are the main risks? Lawsuit, tech delays, strong competitors, slow adoption.
- What’s the TAM for QCi? $5.3B by 2029 globally; $1B for photonic quantum segment.
- When will QCi become profitable? By 2027 if revenue exceeds $30M and margins improve.
- What’s the TFLN foundry’s significance? Critical to scaling chip production for telecom and aerospace clients.
- Who are QCi’s big clients? NASA, Rabobank, TU Delft, Los Alamos National Laboratory.
✅ Conclusion
Quantum Computing Inc. is not a typical micro-cap. With a strong government-backed client base, unique photonic edge, and a nearly complete TFLN foundry, QCi is strategically positioned to ride the quantum wave. While financials remain in early stages, the company has the infrastructure, funding, and pipeline to potentially deliver significant long-term gains.
📢 Disclaimer
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before investing in speculative assets.
